AGP Executive Report

Lamu Refinery Push: Deputy President Kindiki says the Sh2.2tn East Africa Refinery in Lamu will break ground next Wednesday, promising jobs and shifting Kenya from fuel imports to regional processing. Open Finance Bill: Kenya’s Treasury and CBK are drafting a law to force banks and mobile money platforms to share customer data with consent, aiming to spur competition and lower costs. Dangote Deal Momentum: Engineers India has signed a $450m agreement tied to Dangote’s Kenya refinery project, reinforcing the coast-to-EAC industrialization narrative. UNGA Multilateralism: President Ruto used UNGA81 to call for UN and global finance reforms that better serve developing countries, while Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz met Ruto on trade and investment. Banking & Housing: Kenya Power cut finance costs after paying down a Standard Chartered loan, while CBK data shows mortgage lending hit a decade high as rates fell. Dairy Under Pressure: Drought and feed costs are squeezing Trans Nzoia dairy farmers, threatening milk output and incomes. AI Governance Gap: A UNESCO–ICOM survey finds museums are adopting AI faster than policies and staff training. Water Crisis: Drought is worsening water stress for Rendille communities in Marsabit, with wells and boreholes yielding less.

Energy & Industry: Deputy President Kithure Kindiki says Kenya’s Sh2.2 trillion East Africa Refinery in Lamu will break ground next Wednesday, targeting 700,000 barrels per day and promising over 50,000 jobs within three years. Trade & Tax: KRA warns businesses on new Finance Act 2026 VAT rules, including a shift to a three-year wait for bad-debt VAT refunds and tighter invoicing expectations for taxable supplies. Finance & Payments: CBK data shows Kenya’s digital lending nearly doubled in 2025 to KSh110.1bn, as licensed digital credit providers rose to 195; CBK also proposes new capital requirements for payment firms under the National Payment System Bill. Aviation Costs: IATA warns African airlines are squeezed by high taxes, passenger charges and regulatory levies, with Nairobi hosting the Africa Aviation Summit. Health & Social Policy: Kenya’s paediatric HIV response takes centre stage at UNGA as NASCOP highlights progress on mother-to-child transmission and early diagnosis; meanwhile, Elimu Bora students face uncertainty over Ruto’s full funding promise. Governance & Courts: High Court orders the State to set up a formal complaints system for Kenyans working for international bodies with diplomatic immunity. Security & Compliance: KRA seizes 55,000 undeclared smartphones at Eldoret airport, estimating Sh50.4m in lost revenue.

UN Multilateralism Push: Canada’s Mark Carney missed a UNGA event due to US airport delays, but Kenya’s William Ruto and EU leaders still backed a “Partners for Multilateralism” push aimed at reforming the UN and resisting protectionism and coercion. AI Governance: Ruto urged global AI rules to be shaped by countries affected by the tech, warning against sovereignty loss through dependence, as a Europe-led coalition called for frontier AI to stay under human direction. Dangote Refinery Watch: Kenya’s CMA warned investors against unverified Dangote IPO documents even as Ruto said Kenya is ready to break ground on the East Africa refinery in Lamu with Dangote and AFC. Transport Professionalisation: NTSA begins free training for 4,000+ PSV drivers, operators and SACCO managers to improve safety and compliance. Energy & EVs: EPRA capped EV charging costs at Sh16 per kWh (Sh8 off-peak), removing a harsh monthly consumption penalty. Tourism Deal: Emirates partnered with Kenya Tourism Board to boost inbound arrivals. County Cashflow Stress: Kilifi suppliers told MPs unpaid bills total Sh10.7bn, raising insolvency concerns. Cyber Threat: Kaspersky flagged malware spread via torrent sites, with victims including Kenya.

Courtroom & Governance: Nairobi Hospital told the High Court it’s financially stable and well-capitalised, citing revenue growth, as petitioners challenge its AGM register and governance. Energy & Markets: Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro is set to pocket about Sh32.3m after Kenya Power lifted its dividend by 50% to Sh1.20 per share (full year Sh1.50). Capital Markets & Agribusiness: Karakuta Fresh Produce eyes an NSE listing “by introduction,” aiming to link avocado farmers to deeper investor capital. Electric Mobility Policy: EPRA amended the e-mobility tariff, removing the old 15,000kWh cap and shifting economics to a new consumption threshold. Trade & Compliance: KRA set an Oct 31 deadline for customs businesses to renew 2027 licences via iCMS. AI & Data for Resilience: Kenya signed a five-year AI/data pact with Stanford’s Hoover Institution, starting with an El Niño monitoring and response system. Diaspora & Investment: Ruto met Kenyans in the US and witnessed a Kenya-UN-Equity declaration launching a diaspora impact investment platform. Media & Business Integrity: TV47’s QVSE exposé spotlights frozen withdrawals and “self-verification” payment claims, renewing scrutiny of digital investment schemes. Regional Macro: Central banks across Africa are likely to keep rates high longer amid oil, food-price and currency risks.

Budget Transparency: Controller of Budget Margaret Nyakang’o says her office can’t track spending of billions collected through standalone funds and levies like the National Infrastructure Fund and Sovereign Wealth Fund, renewing fears over transparency in President Ruto’s multibillion-shilling vehicles. Climate & Tea Prices: Kenyan black tea growers warn climate shocks are cutting yields and quality while costs rise, squeezing “scarce” incomes and pushing up global tea prices. Fuel Deal Politics: Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi defends Kenya’s government-to-government refined fuel import arrangement as a response to a US dollar crunch, while Uganda’s Museveni credits Ruto for ending costly middlemen fuel procurement. Capital Markets: The NSE recouped losses as bank shares rallied, lifting market value back to about Sh4.004 trillion. Digital Economy & Jobs: Kenya’s telcos added 3,672 jobs in the year to June 2026 as digital services expand, while fixed internet subscriptions grew and satellite/radio technologies drive connectivity. Infrastructure Push: Nairobi’s Railway City plans a 10,000-seat indoor arena as part of a Sh38.14bn MICE core centre. Governance & Delivery: Bomas International Convention Centre is only 38% complete as of June 2026, putting the Sh42bn project’s timeline under pressure.

Healthcare & Registration: Interior PS Raymond Omollo says over 33 million Kenyans have registered with the Social Health Authority (SHA), urging more people to sign up so families avoid selling livestock or shutting businesses over hospital bills. Power Disruptions: Kenya Power reports a vandalism-linked collapse of a Naivasha–Juja 132kV tower, cutting supply via Ruaraka Substation before power was restored by 4:30am; police and Kenya Power are investigating. Education Costs & Publishing: The Kenya Publishers Association urges the state to release accurate Grade 11 enrolment data and clear Sh7bn pending bills to prevent shortages and wastage of learning materials. Trade Fair Readiness: Nairobi authorities say security is beefed up and drainage systems cleared ahead of the 2026 Nairobi International Trade Fair (Sept 28–Oct 4). Transport & Logistics: Motorists face gridlock on the Mai Mahiu escarpment after a crane operation blocked part of the Naivasha–Narok highway; drivers are advised on alternate routes. Agribusiness Pressure: Sugarcane farmers in Homa Bay and Migori protest after Sukari Industry drivers’ strike leaves harvested cane drying, with drivers demanding higher pay. Mobile Market: Safaricom widens its lead in mobile subscriptions (69.8% share) while M-Pesa remains dominant in mobile money (88.8%). Tax Compliance: KRA warns foreign-incorporated firms run from Kenya may be classified as Kenyan tax residents under POEM, raising corporate tax and transfer pricing risks. Politics & Business Climate: US envoy nominee Henry Wooster says Washington will closely watch Kenya’s 2027 elections for stability and lack of violence, not to pick sides.

Fuel Deal Scrutiny: Motorists’ group MAK wants a forensic audit of Kenya’s G-to-G petroleum arrangement after Uganda’s Museveni alleged middlemen were used, raising questions on pricing and who benefits. UNGA Push: President Ruto heads to New York to sell Kenya’s investment and AI agenda, spotlighting the KSh2.2trn Lamu refinery and plans to mobilise billions for African AI. Sports Readiness: CAF boss Motsepe warns Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda must accelerate Afcon 2027 preparations—no postponement—while SuperSport’s bid for broadcast rights faces stiff competition. Urban Planning Pressure: Experts warn satellite town growth is outpacing roads, drainage and services, increasing climate and safety risks. Power Disruptions: Kenya Power schedules outages in parts of Nairobi, Laikipia and Garissa on Sunday for maintenance. Agribusiness Clampdown: Busia orders closure of two fish firms over licence irregularities, including alleged fraud in one case. Cross-Border Finance: Equity Bank Rwanda says firms can use assets in one country as collateral to borrow in another, easing regional expansion. Local Governance & Courts: Nairobi’s Environment and Land Court says residents must prove excessive noise with proper assessments before suing churches or bars. Youth & Health: Police investigate 36 girls in Bungoma who became pregnant, with authorities linking cases to vulnerability around school travel.

Cattle Theft in Kakamega: Dairy farmers in Lurambi say rising cattle theft is wiping out years of investment, after thieves broke into Violet Shivutse’s homestead and stole two Friesian cows, urging tighter surveillance and investigations. Emergency Response Tech: AURA says it has surpassed one million emergency activations globally and is expanding in Kenya via partnerships like Glovo to speed medical and security help for road users. Bamboo Push: Environment CS Deborah Barasa says bamboo can drive climate action and jobs, pointing to Kenya’s policy framework and targets to grow the sector. El Niño Accountability: Civil society groups under the Right to Food Coalition demand concrete action, weekly public updates, and disclosure of funds and flood-control work ahead of October–December rains. Horticulture Tax Refunds: Agriculture CS Mutahi Kagwe calls for faster tax refunds and a review of levies to keep horticultural investors profitable and competitive. JKIA Upgrade: Kenya signs a deal with Swedish firm IBG to modernise Jomo Kenyatta International Airport’s air traffic management. Mobile Market Snapshot: Safaricom gained mobile subscription share in Q4, while smartphone growth and fixed internet expansion continue to reshape Kenya’s connectivity. Cyber Trends: KE-CIRT/CC detected fewer cyber threat events in Q4, even as cybersecurity advisories rose. Afcon 2027 Readiness: CAF’s Patrice Motsepe warns Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda to accelerate stadium testing with no postponement. Data Centres Debate: South African civil groups challenge Equinix data centres in Cape Town, citing water and electricity impacts and calling for a moratorium. Banking Pressure: CBK marks 60 years as Ruto urges banks to cut credit costs and finance farms, factories and enterprises. Legal and Governance: Former EPRA boss Daniel Bargoria seeks court protection in a family company dispute; UASU gives government and university councils one month to resolve a stalled pay deal.

Kenya Power & Energy: Kenya Power says tariff limits are capping revenue growth even after posting Sh24.99bn profit for FY to June 2026, while CEO Joseph Siror’s pay rose to Sh46.02m as dividends climbed. Housing & Finance: SBM Bank Kenya and Fusion Estates signed an MoU to offer mortgages up to 90% of property value, targeting both locals and the diaspora. Tax Policy: The Institute of Public Finance is calling for a PAYE overhaul, warning bracket creep is squeezing low- and middle-income earners. Trade & Logistics: East Africa’s trade rose 37% in Q2 2026, but shippers warn high, volatile logistics costs—especially fuel and border delays—are still hurting competitiveness. E-commerce & Postal: Posta reports a 549.2% jump in domestic parcels in Q2 2026 as e-commerce boosts courier volumes. Security & Tech: INTERPOL says an AI-backed operation identified 126 suspected foreign terrorist fighters, with Kenya among participating countries. Tourism: Operators are pushing Kenya to grow tourist spending via food, culture, events and business travel, not just safaris and beaches. Youth & Jobs: Youth are urged to rethink job searches and explore entrepreneurship as unemployment bites.

Tourism & Aviation: Kenya Tourism Board and Emirates signed a partnership to market Kenya through Emirates’ global network, aiming to convert air connectivity into more arrivals. Education & Tech: Schools are increasingly adopting digital tools under Competency-Based Education, with ElimuTab rolling out interactive screens and tablets for hybrid learning. Public Finance Oversight: Parliament’s probe into secondary school fees and capitation flags inconsistencies in funding, enrolment data and fee caps, with questions on whether fee structures need review. Banking & Cost of Credit: President Ruto urged commercial banks to cut lending rates from about 14% to more affordable levels despite a lower Central Bank Rate, pushing credit into the real economy. Security & Trade Risks: Kenya condemned missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and warned that threats to Red Sea maritime trade could disrupt global commerce and energy security. Business Regulation: A court faulted Kenya’s Insurance Regulatory Authority for invalidating policies and moving insurers into statutory management without giving policyholders a chance to be heard. Regional Trade: Somalia’s manufacturing growth is opening new supply opportunities for Kenyan firms in machinery, inputs and services.

Aviation & Tourism: Emirates added new destination partners and business councils, including deals with Kenya Tourism Board to boost inbound tourism and expand customer reach across its Africa network. Infrastructure & PPP Oversight: Kenya’s High Court ruled parts of the PPP Act unconstitutional, saying PPPs that create government financial liabilities must get Parliament’s approval—an issue tied to JKIA-related concessions. Finance & Compliance: New terror-financing rules raise maximum fines for banks and financial institutions up to Sh20m and extend jail terms for officials, as Kenya stays under FATF grey-list scrutiny. Public Health & Tech: Jacaranda Health’s SMS-based AI system for pregnant women is handling thousands of questions daily, improving access to timely advice in 24 counties. Health Policy: WHO warns dementia is rising across Africa, costing families about $15.6bn annually, with Nairobi hosting a regional workshop. Security & Trade Climate: Burundian civil society urged the AU to intervene over Kenya’s foreign trader restrictions, warning of xenophobia risks. Energy & Climate Resilience: Marsabit and Turkana received an extra KSh1.35bn from KfW for drought resilience, targeting water, irrigation and rangeland rehabilitation. Health Innovation: UCL-led trial finds HIV injections every eight weeks work better than daily tablets for young people, supporting wider rollout.

High Court Contempt: Inspector General Douglas Kanja was found in contempt after Nairobi roadblocks during the June 25 protests, with the judge ordering him to appear for mitigation and sentencing on Sept 22. Business & Courts: Savannah Cement’s Sh4.5bn Absa loan dispute escalated to the Court of Appeal after a High Court halted the fraud prosecution of Benson Sande Ndeta. Tax Compliance for Creators: TikTok told Kenyan creators to submit tax details to meet Kenya’s tax requirements, following similar YouTube moves. Milk Supply Fight: Kenya Dairy Processors Association urged the government not to import powdered milk, saying the shortage is temporary and should ease with expected rains. Nairobi Licensing Crackdown: Governor Sakaja warned traders against middlemen for county licences, pushing direct applications via the Pay Nairobi platform and plans to verify county officers. Jobs Market Pressure: A CUE study says graduates take an average 11.6 months to land first jobs, pointing to a skills gap between universities and employers. PPP Uncertainty: High Court declared key PPP Act sections unconstitutional, creating fresh uncertainty for some government projects while Parliament gets six months to amend. NSSF Outlook: Analysts expect a stronger NSSF interest payout after the fund reported income growth to Sh6.51trn. Digital Infrastructure Push: US DFC approved up to $155m for WIOCC to expand fibre and data centres across Africa, including Kenya. Healthcare Manufacturing: World Health Expo Nairobi spotlighted local production and maintenance support to avoid “equipment graveyard” problems in facilities.

Safaricom Ownership Shock: A Nairobi High Court voided the government’s sale of a 15% stake to Vodacom, ruling Treasury concealed that the deal gave Vodacom effective control of M-Pesa; Vodacom and the Treasury say they will appeal and seek a stay, with shares ordered to revert to the state. Trade Finance Boost: EBRD launched a $100m (Sh12.97bn) dollar funding programme for Kenyan traders and manufacturers, with Co-op Bank executing the first $50m tranche using a cross-currency swap tied to Kenya’s new KESONIA benchmark. Milk Shortage Under Fire: Agriculture CS Mutahi Kagwe faced Senate grilling over the milk crisis, blaming reduced rainfall in high-production areas and promising improvements with rains and better handling of milk for storage. AI Governance Push: Parliament’s Communications committee says AI adoption must come with stronger oversight to protect citizens as automated systems increasingly shape decisions. Digital Infrastructure Investment: The US DFC will invest up to $155m in WIOCC to expand fibre, data centres and undersea cable networks across Africa. Startup Failures: Twiga Foods has entered administration, joining other heavily funded Kenyan startups that collapsed after raising over Sh93bn in total. Aviation Leadership: Kenya Airways named Habil Waswani as acting CEO, focusing on operational efficiency and a clearer turnaround plan. Tourism & Sports: Magical Kenya Open retained on the DP World Tour calendar for 2027, while FKF ex-boss Sam Nyamweya urged an independent caretaker to stabilise football ahead of AFCON 2027.

Safaricom Court Battle: Vodacom says it will appeal after Kenya’s High Court quashed the government’s sale of an extra 15% Safaricom stake, a ruling that could disrupt President Ruto’s $39bn infrastructure financing pipeline. World Athletics Boost: Nairobi has been confirmed to host the 2029 World Athletics Championships, beating London, Rome and Munich—expected to drive hotel, transport and MSME demand, with government backing of KSh 10.1bn. Tax Relief Timeline: Treasury again delayed PAYE relief review for salaried earners, now targeting public participation in early October 2026 before a Bill goes to Parliament. Agribusiness Exports: Agriculture CS Mutahi Kagwe warned avocado and macadamia farmers against premature harvesting, pushing for better quality to protect export reputation and returns. Health Funding Push: Kenya is seeking a new Austria financing deal to expand maternal and neonatal care at KNH, building on earlier support. Saccos Governance Warning: The Cooperative Alliance of Kenya urged Sacco leaders to tighten governance and avoid speculative investments promising unusually high returns. Wildlife & Tourism: KWS cut student entry fees to national parks and reserves to make school trips more affordable.

Safaricom Court Ruling: Kenya’s High Court has nullified the government’s sale of a 15% Safaricom stake to Vodacom, ordering the shares restored and dealing a major blow to the R36bn deal that would have pulled about $2.1bn from state coffers; Vodacom says it will appeal. Capital Markets Mood: The NSE shed Sh158bn in investor wealth in a week as profit-taking hit blue chips like Safaricom, Equity, KCB and Co-op, with Middle East tensions and Red Sea shipping disruptions adding global risk. Power Trade Push: Ethiopia is set to scale up electricity exports to Kenya to 400MW from December 2026, tightening East Africa’s regional power integration after delays on the HVDC interconnector. MSME Credit Boost: Sidian Bank and Kenya Industrial Estates (KIE) signed an MOU to expand affordable, blended financing and business support for manufacturing MSMEs. Governance & Trust: Youth were urged to move from protesting to shaping decisions at a Nairobi governance roundtable, with speakers stressing trust, inclusion and stronger oversight. Sports & Tourism: Nairobi won the 2029 World Athletics Championships hosting rights, a potential tourism and hospitality boost for the city. Food Security Warning: WFP says “Super El Niño” is deepening South Sudan’s hunger crisis, with millions facing acute food insecurity as funding gaps widen. Tech & Data Risks: Kenya’s data protection watchdog is grappling with how AI can mass-produce political messaging ahead of the 2027 election. Unclaimed Wealth: Kenya’s unclaimed financial assets fund rose to Sh125bn, but only a small share has been reunited with owners.

Beverage Market: VBL Industries (Kenya) has launched two new drinks—BOLT UP and XTREME FIZZ—aimed at youth and carbonated soft drinks, with plans to expand distribution, retail visibility and sampling across traditional and modern trade. Sports & Tourism: Nairobi has beaten London to host the 2029 World Athletics Championships, a first for an African city, with World Athletics citing a “compelling and emotional” bid. Gold & FX Policy: President Ruto says Kenya will ban exports of unprocessed gold and push at least three local refineries, with CBK set as the priority buyer to boost foreign exchange reserves. Health Preparedness: The Ministry of Health has ordered counties to activate El Niño emergency teams, secure medicines and vaccines, strengthen disease surveillance, and prepare referral and ambulance services. Humanitarian Pressure: Amnesty reports Russia is exploiting migrants, refugees and detained foreigners to recruit them into Ukraine war ranks. Tech & Healthcare: Sonus Microsystems and Medtronic will run field studies in Kenya using an AI wearable ultrasound platform to support screening and triage for early-onset preeclampsia. Energy & Mobility: Sasol signed a deal to supply sustainable aviation fuel for polar trips to Antarctica, signaling growing SAF demand and local supply ambitions. Tax Administration: KRA has outlined options for taxpayers with unresolved disputes, including an ADR route and a December 31, 2026 deadline for settling principal tax amounts.